Five kinds of result
| State | Uses | Can establish | Cannot establish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simulation | Constructed scenarios | Rule behavior under specified assumptions | Historical or live market performance |
| Historical backtest | Recorded past data | Past-data result under the model and cost assumptions | Future performance or actual fills |
| Paper/testnet | Current or test data, no equivalent production capital | Workflow, integration and decision behavior | Production liquidity, impact and capital risk |
| Shadow mode | Live market data without orders | Real-time signal and control behavior | Actual execution or realized P&L |
| Live | Production orders and capital | Observed result for that account, period and size | Future returns or results at larger scale |
A dashboard needs a denominator
“40% return” is incomplete without capital, dates, cash flows, costs, benchmark, drawdown and whether the number is annualized. APY can magnify a short observation window into an unstable annual figure. The calculation method must remain close to the number.
Backtest quality checklist
- Data existed and was available at the decision timestamp
- Asset universe includes delisted and failed assets where relevant
- Parameters were not selected using the reported test interval
- Fees, spreads, slippage, funding and borrow are included
- Order size respects historical market depth
- Drawdown and adverse regimes are visible
- Results are compared with a simple baseline
Live-result quality checklist
- Account and observation period are defined
- Deposits, withdrawals and strategy changes are visible
- Returns are net or gross with costs stated
- Open positions and unrealized P&L are handled consistently
- Maximum drawdown and exposure accompany return
- Verification scope and independent access are explained
How to read a performance page
Preserve the evidence label attached to every number. A backtest remains a backtest when it appears on a polished product page, and a live result remains limited to its named account, dates and capital. If the status changes, the explanation should change with it instead of carrying an old interpretation forward.